November 19, 2024 | Matt Frommer, Transportation & Land Use Policy Manager
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On Tuesday, Governor Jared Polis released Colorado’s 2035 Transportation Vision, which aims to address our transportation-related climate, air quality, affordability, and safety challenges by improving alternatives to driving and creating more efficient, walkable communities. Importantly, the Vision emphasizes the need for both electric vehicles (EVs) and transit, biking, and walking to achieve the state’s climate goals.
Decades of car-centric transportation and land use planning have resulted in car dependence, often because other non-driving options are inconvenient, unsafe, or impractical. Surveys show that Americans want better access to high-quality transit, biking, and walking facilities, and many would gladly opt out of traffic if given the opportunity.
The 2035 Transportation Vision highlights Colorado’s legislative goals to reduce planet-warming pollution and identifies the gap, particularly in the transportation sector, which remains the largest and most stubborn source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Progress on EV adoption has been encouraging – Colorado now ranks second in the nation for EV sales and is one of the friendliest states to own an EV, thanks to a slew of supportive policies like tax credits and EV charging investments. However, even an aggressive EV scenario will not happen quickly enough to meet our climate targets, leaving us nearly 4 million tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) short of the 2035 goal.
Closing this gap and neutralizing future increases in transportation pollution from population growth requires a concerted effort to expand options and enable fewer and shorter driving trips. According to the Vision, Colorado can achieve an additional 1.2 million metric tons of CO2 reductions through non-auto modes of travel. This level of “mode shift” means doubling the share of total trips completed by transit, biking, and walking from roughly 9.6% to nearly 19.2% by 2035.
Source: SWEEP adapted from the 2035 Transportation Vision Appendix
When adding to the GHG reductions from previously adopted policies like the Colorado Department of Transportation’s (CDOT) GHG Planning Standard, the new mode shift goal will account for about one-third of anticipated transportation GHG reductions by 2035, with electric and fuel-efficient vehicles covering the other two-thirds.
The economic benefits of less driving
Source: CDOT’s 2021 GHG Planning Standard Cost-Benefit Analysis (adapted by SWEEP)
Expanding mobility options will deliver significant benefits beyond climate. A 2021 analysis found that reducing daily driving by 10% could save Coloradans $25.3 billion by 2035, primarily through reduced spending on vehicle operations like fuel, insurance, repairs, and parking. Additionally, mode shift offers significant health benefits from better air quality, fewer crashes and traffic deaths, and more active lifestyles.
Transportation is the second-highest cost for Coloradans, behind housing, and these costs are particularly burdensome for low-income households, which spend about 30% of their incomes on transportation. In contrast, low-income households without a car spend just 5% of their incomes on transportation, demonstrating the potential equity benefits of expanding transportation choices.
Typical annual costs by transportation mode
Source: Victoria Transport Policy Institute: Evaluating Transportation Affordability (2024)
Diversifying our transportation options also improves equity and access to opportunity for people who don’t drive. In a typical community, 20-40% of residents cannot, should not, or prefer not to drive, either because they’re seniors, adolescents, people with disabilities, low-income, or would rather avoid the stress of driving on busy roads. These residents will continue to struggle to access jobs, schools, medical appointments, social events, and other destinations without better transportation options.
Travelers who cannot, should not, or prefer not to drive (VTPI 2024)
Coloradans want more transportation options but often feel unsafe biking or walking in their communities. In addition, buses and trains aren’t fast, frequent, or reliable enough to compete with driving. To achieve a doubling in non-driving travel modes, the Vision proposes an:
- 83% increase in transit service,
- 81% increase in bicycle infrastructure,
- 3.4% increase in sidewalk mileage, and
- More efficient land use policies that guide 52% of future housing development into transit areas and 77% within existing Census Urban Areas.
The land use piece of the equation is especially impactful, and policy decisions have long been siloed from transportation. About one-third of the housing Colorado needs by 2050 to accommodate population growth has not yet been built. Without additional land use policies, approximately half of these homes will be sprawling greenfield developments on open space and agricultural land – development patterns that reinforce car dependence, exacerbate Colorado’s water supply challenges, and require costly infrastructure investments and long-term maintenance.
According to a new Land Use GHG Study from the Colorado Energy Office, a smart land use policy scenario that focuses on new housing growth in existing urban areas and near transit could result in a 4–14% reduction in transportation GHGs from less driving and a 10–31% reduction in building sector GHGs from more energy-efficient housing types. Greenfield development outside urban areas would be cut in half. Some of these policies were adopted in the 2024 land use legislative package, but the extent to which they achieve the desired outcomes depends on local implementation and additional actions on housing and land use.
Source: Colorado Land Use Policy & Greenhouse Gas Co-benefits Study (2024)
This Vision comes at an opportune time, as the state kicks off state and regional transportation planning efforts that will determine how we spend tens of billions of dollars in the coming decade. A recent analysis from Transportation for America found that the 2021 Infrastructure Investment Jobs Act increased GHG emissions in nearly every state, including Colorado, primarily because the majority of funds were used on highway expansion projects that have been shown to increase total driving and pollution.
To its credit, CDOT adopted a nation-leading GHG Planning Standard in 2021, which redirected spending toward transit projects like intercity Bustang service and regional Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) projects in the Denver metro area. The State is also leading an effort to build passenger rail along the Front Range and Mountain corridors.
Moving forward, we need a more aggressive shift toward non-driving transportation modes to play catch up after years of car-centric planning and level the playing field between transportation modes. In particular, Colorado needs to secure a sizable, dedicated funding source for transit agencies to improve service and expand rail and BRT corridors.
The 2035 Transportation Vision articulates the need for both EVs and mode shift to achieve Colorado’s climate goals and describes the numerous economic and social benefits of enabling non-driving transportation options. However, true policy lies not in our vision but in our budget. To bring this aspirational vision to fruition, we must now align our goals with our spending decisions.
The post Colorado’s new 2035 Transportation Vision calls for more transit, biking, and walking to meet climate and mobility goals first appeared on Southwest Energy Efficiency Project.